It's complicated, bear with us
Manchester United currently sit top of Group A in the Champions League on 12 points but it's still possible that José Mourinho's side will crash out of the competition tonight.
CSKA Moscow and Basel both have 9 points at this moment in time, and the final fixtures on Tuesday evening are tasty.
- United v CSKA
- Benfica v Basel
If Basel and CSKA win their respective matches tonight, they will both be tied with Manchester United on 12 points.
However, in the Champions League, the head-to-head record between clubs is the first tiebreaker, as opposed to goal difference.
But... if three teams are tied on points...
The top two is decided by a three-way head-to-head. Still with me? Good.
Now, to prevent United from qualifying:
- CSKA must beat them by 7 goals, and Basel must also win in Portugal.
This would mean that, due to Basel beating CSKA in their head-to-head battle and the Russian side's theoretical 7-0 victory lifting them above United in the head-to-head mini league, the Red Devils would come third in the group and drop into the Europa League.
With a Premier League title to chase, that would not be ideal. We all know how physical toll the Thursday-Sunday schedule can have on a squad.
It's unlikely, but stranger things have happened - probably - and with a Manchester derby coming up at the weekend, Mourinho might just field a weakened side.
https://twitter.com/MarcoReubs/status/938004944862547968
