The title will be changing hands at the end of the season.
Yeah, OK, so we didn't need numbers, equations or algorithms to figure out that Chelsea will not be retaining the Premier League title after their shocking start to the season, but their malaise has contributed to one the most wide open title race in years.
Manchester City, Manchester United and Arsenal look well positioned, while Spurs and Liverpool will also quietly fancy their chances of making New Year charges.
And all of those teams are still looking up at unfancied Leicester, who sit proudly at the summit of the table after 15 games.
But the number crunchers at Euro Club Index have picked their way through the season so far and reckon that the team that will be lifting the trophy is...
Arsenal.
https://twitter.com/EuroClubIndex/status/674236348568576000?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Yes, by looking at statistically probable outcomes of every game remaining in the Premier League season and using those results to predict the final league table, it is the
Gunners who have the best chance of glory next May.
But only just.
Arsene Wenger's men, currently second in the table, are given a 34.9 per cent chance of the title, a fraction ahead of Manchester City on 34.1 per cent. In fact, both sides are expected to finish the season on 75 points, which would equal the lowest total ever for a league champion.
Manchester United rank third with a 21.3 per cent chance, ahead of Tottenham (4.4 per cent), Leicester (3.1 per cent) and Liverpool (1.5 per cent).
The Foxes are tipped to end the season in fifth, ahead of Jurgen Klopp's Reds but behind Spurs, who finally make it back to the Champions League.
At the other end of the table it's bad news for the current bottom three of Aston Villa, Sunderland and Newcastle, meaning all three promoted sides will stay up, while Chelsea are backed to climb to eighth.
