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25th June 2015
07:12pm BST
UPDATE: Derry have since named their team - Cailean O'Boyle comes in for Benny Heron and Oisin Duffy retains his place (and so takes McKinless spot above).
It means Eoin Bradley will probably come to the 45' with Cailean O'Boyle offering height inside, Derry clearly trying to get Bradley on the ball and running at the opposition.
Donegal's team offers so much flexibility that they can change it from play to play to react to whatever's happening on the pitch.
Ryan McHugh has been used to a deeper role in the last two seasons, protecting the full back line and starting their attacks. Against Derry last year, he was coyly switched to corner back to man mark Enda Lynn because McGuinness knew fine rightly that the Oak Leafers' most energetic player wouldn't be staying on the inside line for long. And McHugh followed him out the field.
He could be asked to do something similar again this weekend. Sean Leo McGoldrick is one of the most underrated players outside of Ulster. He is the tidiest of footballers, he's a driving force for so many of Derry's attacks and he is the go-to man time after time when the team find themselves penned inside their own half. He's the reason they get out.
Donegal know all about him. Last year, whenever he got the ball, yellow jerseys pushed straight up on him as if the manager had sounded an alarm. Other players were given space and time. They knew McGoldrick could hurt them. McHugh could wonder up field a bit more knowing that the Coleraine man will attack anyway and he could be asked to even go and give the half back something to think about in the other direction.
This is the problem though, getting inside that area.
Donegal don't let it happen. Armagh and Tyrone had more shots from outside that scoring zone against Donegal than they managed from inside it.
If Derry can get young Brendan Rogers to at least limit Murphy, it frees up McKaigue - who was tied up all game with the Glenswilly monster last year - to drive forward along with McGoldrick and Johnston and Mark Lynch and get inside that area that Derry badly, badly failed to do last year.
The Oak Leafers had most of the possession last year but Donegal were more than happy to let them have it in non-threatening areas - unless of course it was Sean Leo McGoldrick.
Derry were so lethargic in possession in the face of the Donegal blanket - like every team is. They had more ball but couldn't turn it into anything. Their attacks returned 35% on the scoreboard whereas the men from the hills were much more economical and they were much sharper when they had the ball.
That was because of their second half change. They moved the big man inside and all hell broke loose as a 10-minute whirlwind spell had Derry undone. And then some.
Donegal took this shape after the break because Derry allowed them to. The hosts' slow, short build-up sucked them right into the trap, Gerard O'Kane was told to sweep and help out on the ball and he was caught somewhere in between. McGoldrick and McKinless were usually out of that shot there above.
It left all the space in the world for Michael Murphy to win ball off McKaigue with his two partners up top tucked right into the corners. McKaigue had no chance. He was a sitting duck.
Then this unfolded.
Ball was pumped in long and direct as Derry tried tamely to find a polite way through Donegal's rearguard. It was turned over, it was kicked, it was chased. Murphy was winning ball up top for fun and, if he wasn't swinging it over himself, the cavalry wasn't long in arriving.
But the way Derry played allowed McGuinness to use one of the best players in the country deep in the opposition area and it allowed for a footrace to unfold out the field with the best athletes on the island. For the decisive goal, Murphy won the ball, both Frank McGlynn and Karl Lacey got up and took possession, Leo McLoone was laid through, the net rippled and Donegal rode into the semis off the back of that one score that was manufactured in McGuinness' dreamland.
But Derry are better prepared for it this year.
That space will be filled. Murphy won't have the lay of the land and the runners won't have endless grass to charge into. They'll have bodies in their way and Derry, like they did against Down, can use their own running power to get back up the other side.
To win though, they need Eoin Bradley.
An analysis of his game against Down showed just how damn important he is to the side but it also showed how underused he was. He was kicked just four balls from open play throughout the whole game whereas he could tear any defender in Ireland a new one if he was kicked good ball early.
The majority of passes to him should be long and quick but, even against Down, it wasn't like that.
The worry is that, against the best defence in the country, it will be even less like that when it should be much greater. It needs to be. And, now, with the likelihood of him playing out the field, he won't have the ball in areas that Brian McIver would ideally want him to have the ball in. Areas where he could really hurt the men from the hills.
Derry are better prepared for Donegal this year but they still seem to be further down the road. They're still sorting their defence whereas Gallagher is perfecting the north west attack at this stage. Their rearguard was sorted back in 2011.
And, as the weekend's games show, the teams who are finding ways to score are the teams who are winning. Not every team is yet finding a way to score.
Donegal are though. You can see where they can win their games. And that could be the difference on Saturday.
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