Analysis: Longford’s hopes of an upset rest on disrupting Dublin kickouts

Let's get one thing straight.

Longford are not going to beat Dublin. Fact. Already this week in the media their players are admitting that Sunday's game with Dublin should be seen more of a 'learning curve' to better things later in the championship. Maybe that's being realistic and you can't blame players for thinking that way but publicly it is still a concern to hear it articulated and one that should worry Jack Sheedy. Dublin are not invincible; no team is. But if you are going to get a result when you are clearly a weaker side, then belief in your own ability as well as the conviction to go out and get it must be number one for Longford. Dublin's 15 are better individually than Longford's. However it is a team game, and through smart tactics and picking the right players for the right battles, Longford can give themselves a fighting chance at the very least. However they must learn lessons from their championship win over Offaly. There is no chance of a miracle second half revival in Croke Park if they are six or seven points down this Sunday. Longford's best form of defence is from the front. Stephen Cluxton's kickout's are a wonderful weapon for the Dubs but they can be disrupted. This takes huge concentration and discipline from men in the full-forward and half forward lines as well as midfield. The Dublin captain loves nothing more than an almost sidefoot pass to the wings to a teammate already on the half-turn heading for the opposition defence. What he does not want to do is to be forced to kick long into midfield where the possibility of turning over possession is much higher. This means Longford adopting a zonal marking system and avoiding man-to-man. Any team that went 15 v 15 against Dublin has failed. Cork did neither in the league final and were ripped apart. Normally it is just one Dublin player who makes the run so whomever this may be on Sunday, Longford will have to be very, very clued in for it. It means that if a man in blue comes into an area that a Longford player is responsible for, he must track that man. Failure to do so and it could be a very long afternoon. There is a school of thought that pushing up man-to man could work but for Longford, who don't have the players with the legs or the experience, it will be difficult to try to push up on someone like Jack McCaffrey or James McCarthy for 70 minutes. Go beyond your marker to create a screen of Longford jerseys and Cluxton will pick out the pass over the half forwards head and they will be left chasing shadows. A yard or two when facing Cluxton is fatal. You cannot afford to be lazy. If Longford frustrate Dublin here then it may open the game up for them. It has to start with Cluxton. Make him go down the middle and make sure there is plenty of heat on the man who does get the ball. The above is the nightmare situation for Dublin. You would still expect them to win more primary possession than Longford, but making it a 50/50 contest will be exactly what Longford are hoping for. Players such as Michael Quinn and Dessie Reynolds are going to have to work harder than in any game before, while Ross McNerney in the full-forward line will have to make sure he takes every slim chance that comes his way. Dublin go in undercooked after a pathetic showing from Cork in the league final, and with only Monaghan's stern resistance in the last four as their only real test within the last two months. The mantra from Jim Gavin is 'treat every game as it comes' but that old plamás fools no-one. Dublin's league campaign was based around changing the team structure mid-game if they had to and adapting to the various blanket defence or open football put in front of them. If Longford try a blanket, even though manager Jack Sheedy says they won't, Dublin know that their half-backs will be allowed to attack, as Longford simply don't have the pace or the know-how to turn a blanket into a weapon. They choke but cannot counterstrike in the same way that Donegal did so famously last season. That should mean that Dublin's defence will have plenty of scope to help in attack but not quite at the exposed levels we saw in that seismic All-Ireland semi final loss to Jim McGuinness' outfit last season. Dublin should expect Longford to set up like this when Jim Gavin's side are on the attack. McCaffrey and the other wing back will act as back up but will not go beyond the opposition 45. Dublin are still cautious but Longford will struggle to break at pace. Expect Diarmuid Connolly to be afforded little space in which to spray ball around as Longford's centre-forward is likely to be close company, as well as a Longford defender. Dean Rock and Bernard Brogan are the key danger men inside as Kevin McManamon forages for possession outside the 21 metre line. The space he will leave should see lots of early ball into the Dublin full-forward line, and Longford must be conscious of being overexposed early in the game. The concession of early goals, or if Longford are forced to chase after half-time the game could be fatal. Jack Sheedy must show that Dublin can be caught. Even if it is only for fifty minutes or so until the superior conditioning of the Dubs kicks in and they win by the expected four or five points.