By Thom Malone
Easter Monday’s Fairyhouse showpiece, the Boylesports Irish Grand National is worth an incredible half a million euro this year. The level of prize money has ensured it is the best renewal of the race in recent memory. The only thing that could make it any better would be if the bookies accepted half eaten chocolate eggs as legal tender.
The Irish Grand National meeting will play a big part in who becomes Champion Trainer this season. Gordon Elliot is mob handed in his quest to wrestle that crown from Willie Mullins. Should that happen, it will be the first time since 2007 Mullins is not crowned Champion Trainer. Both men are looking for a first victory in the race.
As anyone who bleached their hair and wore oversize clothes in the nineties will tell you, following trends can be treacherous. The Boylesports Irish Grand National however, does have some clear patterns to help point out the more likely winners.
It’s a young bucks’ game. Since 1980, 24 of the 37 winners have been aged seven or eight.
Weight stops trains. Since Flashing Steel won the race in 1995 only two horses have carried more than 11 stone to victory, Commanche Court was the most recent and that was back in the year 2000.
Alpha des Obeaux, Tiger Roll and Minella Foru are three horses that fit the trends criteria. Let’s hope this leads to enrichment and not attempting to destroy photographic evidence like the clothing trends of the nineties.
Mouse Morris has won the Irish Grand National as a rider and twice as a trainer and if
Alpha des Obeaux behaves himself in the preliminaries he undoubtedly has the class to be competitive off a handicap mark significantly lower than his best over hurdles. Don’t back him until he is at the start and calm, as he blew his chance at Cheltenham before the race even began.
Tiger Roll won the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham festival when last seen, that’s over four miles so stamina won’t be an issue. Highlighting his stamina does not mean he is slow, he had the class to win the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham too. He should go well for Gordon Elliot
Minella Foru has only raced once since winning the Paddy Power at Leopardstown’s Christmas festival in 2015, but that proves his stamina and he was a classy hurdler. He had a run over hurdles at Naas at the end of January; that should have put him spot on for the Irish Grand National.
The other Irish Grand National trend is regularly throwing up a brilliant story . This year it could be
Abolitionist. The horse is trained by one of the youngest in the training ranks ElleMarie Holden. She has had less than 15 runners over fences in her career to date. This horse was an impressive winner of the Leinster National at Naas. On that run he is well handicapped. Abolitionist could give his handler an incredible day at Fairyhouse.
