There should be an xG in horse racing – here’s why

The Paddock is back!

The Paddock is back, and this week host Oli Bell is joined by legendary punter and larger-than-life betting personality Harry Findlay.

But alongside the tips and weekend previews, the panel also discussed a bigger idea, one that could fundamentally change how punters understand horse racing.

According to Bell, racing already has access to vast amounts of data, but it isn’t always presented in a way that helps people clearly understand what actually happened in a race.

“You’ve now got jumps data showing how well or badly a horse jumps, and time data showing where a horse was positioned in the race,” Bell explained. “If you combine all of that, you can work out whether a horse actually should or shouldn’t have won.”

Bell was clear that this type of analysis would be used after the race, rather than as a predictive tool.

By combining jumps data and time data, Bell believes it would become much easier to assess whether a horse ran better or worse than the bare result suggests.

The Paddock is a show hosted by Oli Bell, with weekly episodes with the best tips, news, talking points and special guests from the world of horse racing. Catch The Paddock on YouTube, or listen on podcast – wherever you get your podcasts.

“You can tell a punter whether a horse’s performance should be upgraded or downgraded, based on how much it was impacted by jumping and time,” he said.

Bell suggested racing could benefit from introducing a single, simplified metric, similar to expected goals (xG) in football, that helps punters quickly judge whether a performance was genuinely strong or flattering.

‘Why can’t we collate all the information? We’ve got jumps data, time data… [and] we give one specific number so a punter can very easily go ‘flattered, not flattered, overpriced, underpriced,’ and try and work out value that way?”

He pointed to football’s xG statistic as a clear example of how complex data can be made accessible to a wide audience.

“xG in football is such a success because it’s so understandable and relatable,” Bell said. “Every punter can then go, ‘They should have scored more, they should have won that game.’”

Bell added that if racing wants to appeal to new fans, it needs to present its data in a way that is easy to grasp.

“If we want to simplify it for people getting into the sport, use the data in a way that makes everyone understand it,” he said.

The discussion came during episode three of The Paddock, which features Bell, Persad, Stanley and Findlay discussing how betting, data and racing analysis have evolved over time.