COMMENT: Seized with dread, Joe Schmidt’s refusal to take a chance could cost Ireland dearly

Jack McGrath tells me the "carrot" for Ireland is a third place finish. South Africa are paying no attention right now but they'll have whittled a big stick come summer-time.

Picture the scene: 20 minutes into the Second Test in Johannesburg and Keith Earls pulls up injured. 10 minutes later and Jared Payne does his hamstring. Into the breach come Ian Madigan and Fergus McFadden. In the stands sits Stuart McCloskey. Garry Ringrose is at home, in Dublin. Joe Schmidt looks to have been painted into a corner by his side's dreadful 2016 Six Nations campaign. The transition from paean to pain has been a short one - less than six months. Argentina rocked our collective confidence in Cardiff. Injuries have trailed us like a frothing wake. Schmidt, and Ireland, haven't been the same since. Schmidt, his coaches and staff keep telling us how close they are to finding that winning formula. Granted, they played well against Wales without finishing the job. In the last two outings, however, they lost to a wretched France team and were soundly beaten by England. As it is, Schmidt is feeling the pressure. His conservative team selection reflects that. Jared Payne at fullback? You must be dreaming. Schmidt told us that Payne wearing the 15 jersey is a concept that the media is caught up on. Not him:

"We haven't trained with Jared at 15. It would be a big step to suddenly change that. Rob trained on Monday and Simon has played plenty of fullback for it. "What we lack with Jared not in midfield has been pretty evident, particularly on the edge with his defensive work. He did a fantastic job against France and it's an opportunity for him to again control that defensive line."

Those comments serve as a rejoinder for not only Stuart McCloskey, who is dropped entirely for Saturday's game, but Robbie Henshaw. We may not see the Athlone man in the 13 jersey again for a while. McCloskey has been Ulster's best back this season. He has made the most successful offloads in the Champions Cup and is averaging 60 metres gained off 11 carries per game. As he is not a two position player - a Schmidt hang-up - we probably won't see him again until the summer. He will only face the Springboks if Henshaw or Payne are injured. Luke Fitzgerald's latest return may muddy the waters still. Asked about keeping the gambles to a minimum, Schmidt reminded us that he handed out three debuts against England. Schmidt continued:

"You're always looking for balance. I've been coaching professionally for 15 years and I've seen a lot of young players really hampered by being thrust into an environment they're not ready for. "They lose their confidence and sometimes they don't come back for quite some time."

McCloskey loses out. Ultan Dillane will need another big impact off the bench to prove he truly belongs. Fear has gripped the squad. While not exactly asphyxiating the team, it has not left much room to breathe. Keith Earls told us he was so obsessed with getting his defensive role right, against France and England, that his attacking game has suffered. He said:

"I would like to get my hands on the ball a bit more. I have been [doing that] in the last two games but I haven't been in the attacking form that I know I can get to. Probably because I'm concentrating so much on defence, my attacking game has left me a bit."

During the World Cup, the un-selected Craig Gilroy remarked on how tough Ireland's training camp had been. "You can't make a mistake," he said. While Gilroy meant this as a good thing, it rang out as an indication of the utter perfection required by Schmidt. Schmidt demands the same perfection of himself so he is scrambling for any success he can find. Introspective by nature, he needs that fuel more than most. As a result, Schmidt passed by a great opportunity to give McCloskey-Henshaw another look, kept Dillane on the bench and is asking Mike Ross to go once more unto the scrummaging breach. The solid Fergus McFadden makes the bench instead of game-breaker Gilroy. Ringrose and Matt Healy will watch on TV. We have gone with our strongest side against Italy and had better hope they deliver. Otherwise, we may be counting off the days until Canada arrive in November.