Opinion: We analyse why Ian Keatley got the nod over Madigan for Ireland’s Six Nations opener

Joe Schmidt has selected a Dublin horse for a Roman course, but not the one most of us expected

Ian Keatley has gone from fourth to first choice Ireland out-half in the space of nine months. With Schmidt hoping, this weekend, to announce the all-clear for Johnny Sexton's return, the former Old Belvedere student has one game to prove himself. Ian Madigan misses out on the No.10 jersey and now finds himself covering out-half and both centre positions from the bench. Despite the platitudes - from province, country and coaches - Madigan's shunt to inside centre, this and last season, by Leinster coach Matt O'Connor has borne a back-up role for the national team. Schmidt comments:

'Ian is a guy I know really well. He is incredibly positive... his first question to me was "So, am I covering 10 and 12. Where else do you need me?" That's the nature of him. There's no doubt there is some disappointment; he'd love to be starting but he'd also acknowledge that he hasn't had the same game-time and fluency, at 10.'

It is entirely reasonable to assume that Keatley will be the out-half to make way, if and when Sexton returns to face France. Madigan should keep his bench spot for next week's visit of France. The 25-year-old appears indispensable to Schmidt - although we have said that about big-name players before - but the same versatility that should book him a World Cup spot has cost him a start against Italy. All told, however, Madigan's three from seven kicking return and his inexact performance in the Ireland Wolfhounds defeat to England Saxons may have moved the dial in Keatley's direction.

'Clutch'

Keatley has benefited from the headstrong, somewhat blinkered, decision of Munster coach Anthony Foley to pick a 10 at the start of the season and stick with him. Foley's call nudged JJ Hanrahan towards the exit door but his rival has profited from the coach's steadfast belief. Munster supporters that have caught most of their team's matches this season will, generally, have kind words for the former Connacht out-half. He landed a vital, late drop goal against Sale Sharks last October and looked lively, in a playmaking sense, during Munster's seven-game winning streak B.C [Before Clermont]. He struggled away to Saracens, as did most of his teammates, but changes to Ireland's back row and centre combination have seen Schmidt go for a familiar half-back pairing. The coach says, 'Part of [Keatley's selection] is his combination with Conor Murray. They play week-to-week, play well together, and that understanding is very good. It's not to say that I don't think Ian [Madigan] couldn't play well with Conor. It's also that Ian Keatley has that rhythm of playing at 10 on a regular basis. 'Again, it was a reasonably tight decision and it is probably a vote of confidence in Ian, in that he has controlled games well and finished games off for Munster in clutch moments. That has given us a degree of confidence that he can do the same for us.' Schmidt feels Keatley could prove to be a late bloomer, in a similar vein to Sexton when, in 2009, aged 24, he made his international breakthrough. Keatley is 27 and has three caps to his name - the first earned back in '09 - but he has leapfrogged Madigan and Paddy Jackson [even before the Ulsterman's elbow injury] in rapid time. He is seen as safe bet and a player who is mentally strong. Schmidt highlighted the out-half's ability to deal with internal and external pressures when announcing his team to face Italy. In an age when players feel - or, in some cases, are told - they must cover at least two positions, Keatley has bucked the trend. Having deputised for Ronan O'Gara for his first two years at the club, Keatley has experience of being the safe bet to close out games and be the go-to guy on short notice. Whether he has the mental strength and ability to prove himself as genuine competition for the seemingly peerless Sexton is another matter.