Josh van der Flier to be rewarded if Sean O’Brien drops out

Joe Schmidt likely to go with Josh van der Flier should fitness doubt Sean O'Brien fail to "regenerate" properly by Saturday lunchtime.

It is amazing what a few weeks of Test rugby can do to your perceptions. There I was, on Thursday at Carton House, defending myself to a grouping of reporters when I said Iain Henderson should start against Australia. "Henderson?!," came one incredulous response. "Henderson shouldn't be in the squad." This is Iain Henderson we're talking about. One of Ireland's most consistent stars of the World Cup and a man that excelled on the summer tour to South Africa. Peter O'Mahony finds himself in a similar situation. Very often in rugby, absence simply makes the heart forgetful. O'Mahony was out of action for 11 months. By the time he got back, many had forgotten just how ferocious, fearless and bloody good the guy can be. He was in line to be the next Ireland captain after Paul O'Connell. When he was off recovering from his horrific knee injury, Ireland wee left with two prime candidates - Jamie Heaslip and Rory Best. The Ulster hooker won the vote and very few have regretted it since. Captain or not, it was expected by most that O'Mahony would go straight back into the Ireland team for the November Series. He returned with a cameo against Zebre and was restricted to 40 minutes against Leinster. Soon after, he had to lead his Munster team through one of the toughest periods of their history when head coach Anthony Foley passed away in Paris. He spoke haltingly but beautifully about his coach, and hero, and tapped into that Foley spirit to rage into Glasgow Warriors on an unforgettable day in Limerick. He followed that up with a superb, 80-minute performance against Ulster, in Belfast, but Joe Schmidt had his reservations. He doubted if 80+ against Ulster would be enough for 80++ against the All Blacks in Chicago. If some of us thought Schmidt was crazy to go into battle without O'Mahony, the 40-29 win and the impressive showings of Jordi Murphy and Josh van der Flier proved otherwise. On Saturday, with O'Brien's fitness in doubt, Schmidt is likely to go with van der Flier and leave O'Mahony in reserve, on the bench. What seemed like folly at the start of November makes sense as the month winds down. Van der Flier has not started this month but 56-minute and 58-minute showings off the bench have proved to Schmidt that he is ready. As replacement openside in Chicago, he made 14 hefty tackles and was in the high 20s for ruck involvements. As blindside, in Dublin, he was more of a ball-carrying threat [12 carries for 51 metres gained]. Losing O'Brien against a Wallabies back row containing David Pocock and Michael Hooper would be a hammer blow but Ireland are suddenly stacked in the back row. An in-form van der Flier with Peter O'Mahony simmering away on the bench. That's no bad fall-back option. Dick Clerkin makes his GAA Hour debut to talk about a wonderful career and argue passionately with Colm Parkinson over Sky Sports GAA. Subscribe here on iTunes.