We can see where Joe Schmidt is coming from, but Tadhg Beirne could be the winning and losing of this Six Nations.
Ireland's two championship wins, in 2014 and 2015, came down to points difference on the final, frantic days. Every point counted and every decision, support line, tackle back and lung-busting run was crucial.
Right now, Ireland have one of the best second row operators in European rugby but they seem prepared to wait until the summer until he returns home to consider him for selection. Pairing up Beirne and Iain Henderson would give Ireland one hell of a second row, with James Ryan or Ultan Dillane primed to come off the bench.
That is unlikely to happen in the upcoming championship, however. Devin Toner is still doing his thing for province and country and Schmidt is set to leave Scarlets lock Beirne out of his Six Nations squad, announced by the IRFU on Wednesday.
The thinking behind Beirne being left out of the mix is that he is playing abroad and, even though he is headed back to Munster, selecting him may encourage other Irish players to seek short-term moves out of the country to make names for themselves. The union, and Schmidt, want as deep a playing pool to select from but shared between the four provinces.
The only man to buck this trend since Schmidt took over as Ireland head coach is Johnny Sexton, who played two seasons with Racing 92 before returning to Leinster. This was commonly known, at the time, as 'The Sexton Rule'. Schmidt has deemed no other foreign-operating player to be worthy of the rule since 2016.
Beirne had a couple of conversations with Schmidt before agreeing his contract with Munster.
During an appearance on The Hard Yards podcast, late last year, the Kildare native seemed to accept that it his chance with Ireland would come but it may have to wait.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BeAbomOlA5v/?taken-by=sportsjoedotie
The big question is - Are Ireland good enough to win the Six Nations without Tadhg Beirne?
The answer would have to be, 'Yes'.
But are Ireland in a better position with Beirne in the squad? Undeniably so.
The man is a cult hero at Scarlets, and within Welsh rugby, and he has only been in the PRO12 champions' set-up 18 months. Ken Owens, their captain, joked after Beirne's tour-de-force Champions Cup display, against Bath, that Beirne did not train much. He simply rocked up on a Saturday and did the business.
That business - turning over opposition ball for fun, making silky passes, running 40 yards to get on a support line, stepping England and Lions superstars to score tries - has been a joy to watch.
Beirne is exactly the sort of front five forward the top Test teams are building their game-plans around. He is athletic, mobile, can go for 80+ minutes without his levels dropping too much and has great handling skills, and attacking awareness.
He is not the biggest of locks in the pro game but he is certainly making his presence felt against some of the best club sides in the northern hemisphere. As for lineout calling, Henderson, Toner and Ryan are all adept and even Treadwell has called in a Test match [Fiji]. For Beirne it is a matter of letting the dog off the leash and being there to back him up.
Last November, when he was asked about building for the 2019 World Cup, Schmidt stressed that Ireland's priorities should be targeting the 2018 and 2019 Six Nations. If he is true to that claim, Beirne may yet be the exception to Ireland's unwritten rule.
