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17th January 2015
07:43pm GMT
Rush hour: Wilson and Lynch[/caption]
Seattle will look to repeat their Week 1 success running the ball, when they racked up over 200 yards on the ground in a 36-16 victory. Marshawn Lynch has worn down every defence he has faced in the second half of the season, while any lapses in discipline by the Packers' defensive front will open up running lanes for quarterback Russell Wilson, a problem that has haunted Green Bay in recent postseasons (see Colin Kaepernick's record rushing performance for San Francisco two years ago).
Verdict: Seattle has run roughshod over every offence they have faced since mid-November, allowing just 56 points in their last seven games. Rodgers, at his best, is far superior to any quarterback they have lined up against, however, so to assume another single-digit return is unlikely. Yet even if Rodgers was fully fit, wins in Seattle are like hen's teeth (to be honest we would have rather seen the Cowboys' elite offensive line and running game test the Seahawks' defence), so the fitness doubts over Green Bay's No.12 are enough for us to pick the hosts, even giving 7.5 points.
Smash hit: Gronkowksi[/caption]
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick shows no sign of slowing down and he continues to adapt his game plans to take advantage of opponents' weaknesses to devastating effect. Predominantly a passing offence, Belichick has zeroed in on the running game against Indy, frequently employing an extra offensive lineman to overpower the Colts in November's 42-20 victory.
Running back has never been the most important position in the Pats' attack, but LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray have both exploded for four touchdown performances against this defence in the past 12 months. The Pats also match up well against the Colts in the passing game, and Rob Gronkowski can be expected to find success against Football Outsiders' 27th-ranked unit against tight ends.
On the other side of the ball, Andrew Luck will also be looking for his tight ends, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, as the Pats have an even greater susceptibility across the middle of the field, while the prospect of shutdown cornerback Darrelle Revis matching up against TY Hilton on the outside is a mouthwatering one.
The Colts' run game has been their major failing this season, but with former first round pick Trent Richardson made inactive last week, Dan Herron created enough on the ground to keep the Broncos honest and prevent them keying in completely on Luck.
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Outside threat: TY Hilton[/caption]
Verdict: The most impressive part of last week's Colts win was the way the offensive line kept Luck clean, and if they can do that again they can keep pace with Brady and company on the other sideline. The Patriots should win, but after seeing Indy easily handle a more talented roster last week, we're hesitant to bet against them. The OVER, however, seems a good shout given the teams' three meetings since Luck arrived in the NFL have averaged a cool 70 points.
[All odds via Ladbrokes]
