Coming off our best week of the season, SportsJOE has to navigate the always tricky Week 17 slate to end the regular season on a high.
There aren't a whole lot of games that really matter this week, Seattle can lock up homefield advantage through the NFC play-offs with a win over St Louis, while Green Bay and Detroit, both already play-off bound, battle at Lambeau Field for the NFC North title and a possible first-round bye.
The only win and you're in game of the weekend in the NFC is the game in Atlanta between the Falcons and the Carolina Panthers. The division title and, remarkably, a home play-off game are up for grabs between a pair of six-win teams.
In the AFC, New England has the top seed sown up, with Denver needing to beat the feisty Oaklan d Raiders to get the second bye. Pittsburgh and Cleveland square off with an outside shot of supplanting Denver, but more importantly, the loser must go on the road on wild-card weekend. The real intrigue centres on the final wild-card berth - San Diego controls its destiny and is in with a win over Kansas City, but if the the Chiefs triumph the path is open for either KC, Baltimore or Houston to extend their seasons.
On to the betting:
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (Patriots -5)
Wait, didn't you just say New England had nothing to play for this week, we hear you ask. Well, yeah, but neither do the Bills after they fell to the Raiders last Sunday to extinguish their play-off hopes. If you wanted to wait until game-time to see if Tom Brady is active we wouldn't blame you, but the Pats quarterback has indicated he wants to see the field to tune up his offence. Buffalo's defence should provide a good test but are without Pro Bowl D-lineman Marcell Dareus and starting cornerback Stephon Gilmore.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (OVER 44.5)
The under the radar Vikings are putting together quite a nice finish to the season, with wins over Carolina and the Jets and narrow road defeats by Detroit and Miami. Rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has been making progress all season and looked very much in control while leading the Vikes offence to a 35-point tally against the Dolphins. The Bears, meanwhile, remain a total mess, with Jay Cutler back under centre after being benched last week for Jimmy Clausen, who is out today with a concussion. There are always a couple of meaningless shootouts on the final day of the season, and our gut tells us Cutler will be out to prove a point and turn this into one of them.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (Steelers -3.5)
We had to pick at least one meaningful game, and we're always happy to bet against Andy Dalton in prime time. The Red Rifle has an abysmal record when the bright lights go on, especially on the road, and is also just 2-5 in his career against the Steelers. The Bengals did pick up a big win against the Denver Broncos last week that clinched their play-off place, but that was mostly a defensive victory, as they picked off Peyton Manning four times to overcome Dalton's early pick-six.
